Aidonian's blog

As of now USA and Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire deal and now it’s up to Russia if they want to agree with it. I have read that Russia has stipulated demands that the regions they conquered and Crimea are internationally recognised as Russian territories while that is now not the case.

The demands of the Ukrainians were as followed:

• An end to all aerial attacks (Ukraine and Russia fire missiles and drones at each other daily)
• Silence in the seas (safe transportation of shipping goods)
• Release of all prisoners of war and civilian detainees

While Ukraine wants security guarantees from the USA, Trump is reluctant to give it to them. The back up clown JD Vance, VP of USA has stated that the presence of US companies in Ukraine are security guarantees that Russia won’t attack again. I’m no fan of NATO whatsoever as it’s an imperialistic military organisation that should have been disbanded after the fall of the USSR, but strong arming Ukraine into a bad deal will make it even more apparent that Ukraine is weak. The press conference between Trump and Zelensky showed this to the world how USA conducts things. Every country in the south knows that this is the way USA behaves behind closed doors. Now it was for all to see because according the Orange clown Trump: it was good television. Russia it seems as expected has rejected the ceasefire. If you look at the situation on the ground. Russian military while experiencing losses in manpower and material, is gaining ground. Ukraine is losing ground and manpower. There is no real incentive for Putin to agree to a ceasefire. That Ukraine agrees is good because it showed to the world that they want peace after Kremlin and Trump(their puppet) are saying otherwise.

Why do I think it’s a bad deal?

Well Trump wants the war to end so he can focus on China.

The deal doesn’t give any guarantees to Ukraine but allows US companies to exploit the minerals in the grounds. Among them are minerals that Musk needs. So that goes directly to the elite, not the US citizens. Zelensky is basically selling out his country to US.

If Putin wanted a regime change, he could demand it as well as part of a peace deal? He doesn’t, which means he is after something else. Putin also knows that Ukraine military is weak, losing ground. Sure rejecting the offer might pias of Trump. Putin is not afraid of Trump. Putin knows how the deal with the orange clown. if he accepted the agreement right away, it might appear to the Russian public, that Putin is afraid of USA. Something that he can not afford to show to his supporters.This ceasefire deal as it is now, is a bad deal. Don’t get me wrong. I want this senseless war to end. The thing is, the Ukrainians don’t get anything out of it. Zelensky offered the minerals to Trump so that Trump wouldn’t be tempted by Putin doing the same thing. Zelensky already made a deal with Cargill in regards to the farmers and their lands, so that the profits go to them. This war is mostly for two things: wheat and minerals. Ukraine is the grainbasket of Europe and parts of Africa. Whoever controls it, controls the price and the profits of the grain. The fact that the ceasefire talks where held in Saudia-Arabia between USA and Ukraine is strange to say the least. Europe was excluded from the talks. Trump wants to push the costs of the war onto Europe so he can focus on China and get the profits from Ukraine for his rich friends. And the Ukrainians? They are screwed over again and again. The war continues, they are losing ground and are being forced into a bad deal which will basiclly make them a kind of colony of the USA. I fear that even if the ceasefire leads to a peace deal, after the war, Ukrainians might face even greater issues with regards to wages. Compared to Belgium, they are one third of that in Belgium.

Russia’s answer to the deal

Russa has studied the deal and is waiting for new information,but at the moment their demands are bit preposterous.

They want that the west to stop arming Ukraine. That the international community recognised the conquered regions as part of Russia, that no foreign peacekeeping troops may be posted on Ukrainian soil, that Ukraine stops arming itself. Russia knows that it is in a far better position to make demands for a ceasefire deal than Ukraine is. Strategically speaking it makes sense what Russia is demanding, even though like i said its preposterous. My guess is that Putin is waiting a bit to answer to the 30 days ceasefire deal. He doesn’t want to appear weak to the world and to his own people. Even though Russia like Ukraine has lost alot in this war: lives and equipement. Ukraine also, but Ukraine has replenished thier equipement with foreign aid. While Russia doesn’t have that at the moment. It does get help from North-Korea with equipement and manpower.

Possible peace?

The Russo-Ukrainian war needs to come to an end. Rather 3 years ago than next year. Many lives were already lost on both sides and for what? So the elites can get richer? This war was one way to made sure that Russia got itself stuck in an neverending war, which this war has become. Russia is part of OVSE and through that organisation, a peace could be made, but like in the past, it was twarted by third parties who had something to gain from this war. If a peace deal comes, it will mean that Ukraine will be likely carved up by USA and Russia and EU gets the bill for it.The EU as it is now, looks weak and that is even bad compared to the weak leader that Trump is. EU is ramping up their defense spending so that they could help Ukraine out. The narrative of the EU is to spread fear of the agression of Russia that could end up in Brussels. This narrative of fear of Russia is only about making people affraid of Russia so that they will agree with spending more on the military instead of educaiton, pensions, social security, etc… This will also lead to Russiaphobia and I don’t like that. I know many Russians and Russiaphobia helps no one. Never did. Except for those in power. Ok, I agree that Putin had no right to be there in Ukraine, but geopolitically speaking, its more complex than that. Than again, anyone saying anything like that, is put directly in the camp of pro-Putin. Putin’s reasoning for the Ukrainian invasion is BS, but geopolitically speaking, I understand why it happened, even though i disagree with what Putin did. So in essence, even if peace is reached and the war finally ends, i doubt it will be in favor of the Ukrainians. I will be glad if the war ends, because i know many Ukrainians who were affected by it, but a bad deal is still a bad deal even if it leads to peace. Should Ukraine accept a bad peace deal? The question is rather if they have the ability to deny it? As of now, they are losing ground. If the momentum is kept up, they will lose. A cease fire deal with give them a breather, but will it be enough? Neither Ukraine nor Russia has the capability to keep fighting. In the best interest of both countries and their people, its best that the war ends so the soldiers would go back to their families. Enough blood has been shed in this war on both sides. Enough lives have been lost on both sides. Like i said before, in war its the ordinary, working class who will suffer the most and here its not different. That is why this war needs to end.